Friday preview: US September jobs report in focus

updated: 3 October 2019 at 1:45pm Author: Alexander Bueso

(Sharecast News) - Friday will see the release of what is often referred to as the 'all-important' monthly non-farm payrolls data, due to the typically large influence that they have on the course of financial markets over the following month.
And following weaker than expected readings on consultancy ADP's private sector payrolls report two days before, followed by a miss on the ISM's non-manufacturing sector survey on Thursday, the possibility appeared to exist that the end of the week would bring with it another nasty surprise for traders.

Due to the manner in which the ADP's tally was constructed, the weakness in that report had likely been overstated, said Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Nonetheless, a recent downshift in labour demand in various survey pointed to a slowdown in hiring towards a 50-75,000 a month pace by the turn of the year, Shepherdson added.

Meanwhile, regarding the drop seen in the ISM services hiring sub-index, which dropped to its lowest level since February 2014, Shepherdson said it pointed to payrolls increases of only 50,000 a month.

"[Due to the expected income of trade tariffs on people's income] hiring plans have been drastically scaled back," he said.

"If sustained, this is consistent with payroll growth of just 50K or so in a couple months' time. The bad news is that the survey has overstated job growth for most of this year, and if that persists, then zero payroll readings are not far off."

Several top officials from the US Federal Reserve are also scheduled to take to the podium on Friday, including Cleveland Fed chief, Loretta Mester, at 1810 BST, followed by the Dallas Fed's Kaplan at 1910 BST and Fed vice chairman, Richard Clarida, at 2335 BST.

Friday October 04

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Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)

Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)

Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)

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