Inflation higher than expected

Investors shrugged off a higher than expected inflation, having taken a good look underneath the bonnet.

Article updated: 11 June 2021 8:00am Author: Richard Hunter

The 5% figure was higher than the 4.7% which had been widely expected, but major drivers of the increase were airline fares and the sale of used cars, the latter of which was partly prompted by the semiconductor shortage currently affecting the industry.

With further easing of lockdown restrictions likely to give a fillip to the leisure and hospitality sectors and, to some extent, tourism, there could be more pressure on prices to come. However, the current indications are that inflationary pressures are likely to subside in the second half of the year and increasingly investors are beginning to warm to the Federal Reserve’s narrative of the current elevated levels being transitory.

In addition, jobless claims fell to the lowest level for 15 months, although any signs of entrenched wage inflation will be closely monitored by investors in the coming weeks.

The resulting relief from the economic data propelled the S&P500 to a new record closing high and the index has now added 12.9% in the year to date. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is ahead by 12.6% and the Nasdaq has continued its more recent recovery, currently up by 8.8% so far this year.

Economic recovery was also in evidence following the release of the GDP number for April in the UK, which saw growth of 2.3%. While this leaves the UK economy 3.7% shy of its level just prior to the pandemic hitting in 2020, it is nonetheless further proof that the positive direction of travel is becoming established. The further lifting of restrictions were a major contributor to the strength in growth, most notably driving improvements in the likes of hospitality and non-essential retail.

With consumer confidence also having strengthened in recent months ahead of the continuing reopening, the economic clouds appear to be clearing.

This has been beneficial both for sterling and the more domestically focused FTSE250 index, which is now ahead by 10.5% in the year to date. While the strength of sterling may crimp dome of the further gains for the premier FTSE100 index, currently up by 9.9% this year, the UK is gaining popularity as an investment destination, with its undemanding valuation increasingly enticing overseas institutional buying interest.

More from Richard Hunter: read more articles directly on the interactive investor website.


These views are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the view of The Share Centre, its officers and employees.

Richard Hunter

Head of Markets, interactive investor

Richard has over 30 years of stockmarket experience and is one of the UK’s foremost commentators on market matters and a regular contributor for the BBC (BBC News Channel, Wake Up to Money and the Today Programme), CNBC and Bloomberg. Richard’s expert commentary also appears across the national and specialist press. He previously held senior positions at Hargreaves Lansdown and NatWest Stockbrokers.

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