What to expect from economic announcements week commencing 17 December.
Economic announcements w/c 17 December
19 Dec, UK Inflation Data for November
The pullback in oil and the weakness of sterling will likely act as opposing forces to November’s rate of prices rises, however most economists take the view that the year-on-year inflation could creep higher to near 2.5% from the current 2.4%, while the month-on-month figure rises to 0.3% from 0.1%.
19 Dec 2018, US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
A quarter point interest rate rise to 2.5% at this meeting has been a near certainty according to the interest rate swaps market for a while now; no rise here would certainly be a shock. However, beyond this meeting, given the volatility in recent months in the financial market led by trade and growth concerns, there is an expectation that the rate path will be a little shallower.
20 Dec 2018, UK Retail Sales for November
October’s retail sales figures were pretty disappointing, falling by 0.4% month-on-month, and built upon weakening momentum since the summer. The problems seem to be around non-food spending and with the crucial Christmas sales period starting, high street general retailers - many of whom are already facing existential threats, must braced themselves for a tough set of November figures which will give indicators for Christmas sales, the most important month for any retailer.
20 Dec, Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
No interest rate hikes were priced in for this meeting, but the recent inflation, retail sales data and general malaise on Brexit and the political environment is now likely to lead to policymakers to take more of a ‘wait and see’ approach on decision making based on the various possible outcomes around Brexit.
21 Dec, UK Q3 GDP Final
21 Dec, US Q3 GDP Final
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