Friday preview: US October non-farm payrolls in the spotlight

updated: 31 October 2019 at 4:00pm Author: Alexander Bueso

(Sharecast News) - The focus at the end of the week will be firmly on the monthly US payrolls report for October, with investors keen for additional information regarding how well hiring is holding up in the States.
Consensus is for hiring to have slowed from a 136,000 pace in September to 95,000, with some economists having broached the possibility of further softness towards the end of the year, although looking further ahead the American jobs machine is expected to weather the present slowdown.

Indeed, some, such as those at Barclays Research, point out that the October jobs data is expected to be downwardly distorted due to the strike at GM during the month and its spillover effects into the wider automotive industry.

However, hiring linked to the federal census is expected to act as an offset.

The closely-followed ISM Institute's factory sector Purchasing Managers' Index is also due out (consensus: 49.0).

That will be preceded overnight by the private sector-compiled Caixin China factory PMI for the same month, which could easily move markets by itself, and by IHS Markit's UK manufacturing PMI at 0930 GMT.

Barclays's forecast for the British PMI is for a slight rise from 48.3 to 48.5, in line with recent prints in the hard data and less pessimistic outturns in surveys.

"The falling likelihood of a no-deal Brexit may also have bolstered overseas demand for UK goods and supported production."

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