Thursday preview: MPC, Lloyds in focus

updated: 1 May 2019 at 2:13pm Author: Alexander Bueso

(Sharecast News) - The market spotlight on Thursday will be squarely on the Monetary Policy Committee, as rate-setters at the Bank of England meet to decide on policy.
No changes are expected, although there has been some speculation of late that the most hawkish of the MPC's members, Michael Saunders, might break ranks and vote for a 25 basis point interest rate hike.

In the States meanwhile, the focus will be on labour productivity and unit cost data covering the first quarter of 2019.

Across the Channel, the most important economic release will be IHS Markit's 'final' reading on euro area manufacturing and services, also for the month of April.

Analysts' attention will be trained on Lloyds and Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday.

For the former, consensus is at £2,051m for its first quarter profits before tax, with earnings per share pegged at 53.9p and net interest margins at 2.91%, with the latter little changed from 2.91% one year ago.

"Given lacklustre revenue prospects, costs could be more of a focus (consensus: £1,963m)," said Numis's Tom Rayner.

So too the balance sheet, the analyst said.

The lender's common equity Tier 1 ratio meanwhile was seen at 14.1%, although a reversal of the negative insurance volatility seen at the end of 2018 might push its between five to ten basis points higher, Rayner pointed out.

On Shell, the Vara-compiled consensus is for $4.5bn of net income, which is considerably higher than the $3.9bn estimate from analysts at RBC.

Excluding the impact from IFRS 16, RBC is at 20.7% for the oil major's gearing, which would be 90 basis points more than in the last quarter of 2018.

Capital expenditures during the quarter were seen running at $6.5bn by RBC and at $23.8bn for the full-year, as per Bloomberg.

Thursday May 02


AB Dynamics, McCarthy & Stone, Royal Bank of Scotland 11% Cum. Prf, Royal Bank of Scotland 5.5% Cum. Prf., Swallowfield, Wetherspoon (J.D.)


APQ Global Limited, Funding Circle SME Income Fund, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, SQN Asset Finance Income Fund Limited, SQN Asset Finance Income Fund Limited 'C Shares', SQN Secured Income Fund , Unilever


Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Factory Orders (US) (15:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)

PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)

Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)


Morses Club


EP Global Opportunities Trust, Ferrexpo, Group


Dolphin Capital Investors Ltd


Aberdeen Smaller Companies Income Trust, Arabian Food Industries Company Domty S.A.E. GDR (Reg S), Barclays, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Dalata Hotel Group, EKF Diagnostics Holdings , Empiric Student Property , Equiniti Group , Eve Sleep PLC, F&C Investment Trust, Fisher (James) & Sons, Gresham Technologies, Howden Joinery Group, International Personal Finance, JPMorgan American Inv Trust, Kaz Minerals , Kerry Group 'A' Shares, MPAC Group, Personal Group Holdings, Phoenix Group Holdings , Reach, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Schroders, Urban Exposure


Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Paddy Power Betfair, Smith & Nephew


BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)

PMI Construction (09:30)

PMI Manufacturing (09:30)


Hammerson, SEGRO, The Simplybiz Group


Aurora Investment Trust, Bakkavor Group , Cenkos Securities, Coats Group, Contour Global , Derwent London, Elementis, EP Global Opportunities Trust, Franchise Brands, G4S, H&T Group, Harworth Group, Highcroft Investment, Holders Technology, Hydrogen Group, LLoyds Banking Group 9.25% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, LLoyds Banking Group 9.75% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, London Stock Exchange Group, Luceco , Menhaden, Morgan Advanced Materials , NMCN, Octopus AIM VCT 2, Playtech, Porvair, Relx plc, Rightmove, SafeCharge International Group Limited (DI), Senior, Tribal Group, Volga Gas


Indivior, Lancashire Holdings Limited, Royal Dutch Shell 'A'