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Market Report: 26 June 2017

There was little economic data of much significance last week, we had manufacturing and services PMI releases from both the US and the Eurozone, not of which produce too many surprises.  The key political event was the start of Brexit negotiations and so far it hasn’t gone too well for the UK Prime Minister.

However, the key market driver last week was the fall off in the price of oil, where the Brent benchmark hit $45 a barrel on concerns of rising US production and rising production from Libya and Nigeria who are exempt from the OPEC production cuts.

There was a dovish tone from various central bank policy makers, despite the previous weeks minutes, Mark Carney reiterated his stance that there was no need just yet to raise interest rates. However, this was at odds with the bank’s chief economist, Andy Haldane calling the need for a rate rise.

We have another fairly light week of economic data releases. In the UK we will have the latest UK house price data released by Nationwide, likely to show no prices increases over the month and a moderating year on year growth rate of 1.7%. We also have the final Q1 GDP numbers, the annualised 2% growth rate is not expected to change.

Expectations for the US Q1 GDP numbers are also expected to remain unchanged at 2% but the Durable Goods Order figures are expecting to show some softness in the US economy, this contrasts with the Consumer Confidence numbers which are expected to remain relatively encouraging.

Other releases to look out for will be the Chinese non-manufacturing and services PMI’s, the fear hear are of further evidence of a Chinese slowdown. The Japanese Industrial Production figures could show some weaknesses too. 

Author: Helal Miah, Investment Research Analyst

The Week Ahead

Important economic releases & events this week:

Date Country Event Period Consensus Prior
Mon US Durable Orders ex-Transportation SA M/M (Preliminary) MAY 0.35% -0.48%
Mon US Durable Orders SA M/M (Preliminary) MAY -0.55% -0.78%
Tue US Consumer Confidence JUN 116.0 117.9
Wed UK Nationwide House Price SA M/M JUN 0.0% -0.21%
Wed UK Nationwide House Price NSA Y/Y JUN 1.7% 2.1%
Wed US EIA Crude Oil Stocks 06/23   -2.5M
Thu JP Retail Sales NSA Y/Y (Preliminary) MAY 3.0% 3.2%
Thu UK BoE Mortgage Approvals SA (Number) MAY   64.6K R
Thu UK BoE Net Mortgage Lending SA (GBP) MAY   £2.7B R
Thu UK BoE Net Consumer Credit SA MAY £1.5B £1.5B
Thu UK M4 Money Supply SA M/M MAY   1.2% R
Thu UK M4 Money Supply SA Y/Y MAY   8.2% R
Thu EUZ Consumer Confidence Indicator (Final) JUN -1.3 -1.3
Thu US GDP Chain Price SAAR Q/Q (Final) Q1 2.2% 2.2%
Thu US GDP Chain Price SA Y/Y (Final) Q1 2.0% 2.0%
Thu US GDP SAAR Q/Q (Final) Q1 1.2% 1.2%
Thu US GDP SA Y/Y (Final) Q1 2.0% 2.0%
Fri JP CPI Core Y/Y MAY 0.50% -0.30%
Fri JP CPI National NSA Y/Y MAY 0.50% 0.40%
Fri JP Industrial Production SA M/M (Preliminary) MAY -2.5% 4.0%
Fri JP Industrial Production M/M (Preliminary) MAY 5.2% 5.7%
Fri CN Official Non Manufacturing PMI JUN   54.5
Fri CN Official Services PMI JUN   53.5
Fri UK GDP SA Q/Q (Final) Q1 0.20% 0.20%
Fri UK GDP SA Y/Y (Final) Q1 2.0% 2.0%
Fri EUZ CPI Core NSA Y/Y (Flash) JUN 1.0% 0.90% R
Fri EUZ CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y (Flash) JUN 1.2% 1.4%
Fri US Personal Consumption Expenditure SA M/M MAY 0.10% 0.40%
Fri US Personal Income SA M/M MAY 0.30% 0.40%
Fri US Chicago PMI SA JUN 58.0 59.4
Fri US Michigan Sentiment NSA (Final) JUN 94.5 94.5

Companies reporting this week:

Date Company Name Event Description
Tue Findel Plc Q4 2017 Earnings Release - Preliminary
Tue Photo-Me International Plc Q4 2017 Earnings Release - Preliminary
Tue Porvair Plc Q2 2017 Earnings Release
Wed Dixons Carphone Plc Q4 2017 Earnings Release
Wed Tullow Oil Plc Q2 2017 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Statement
Thu DS Smith Plc Q4 2017 Earnings Release

Author: Helal Miah, Investment Research Analyst

Glossary

PMI: Purchasing Managers Index

CPI: Consumer Price Index

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

BOE: Bank of England

ECB: European Central Bank

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee

BOJ: Bank of Japan

ISM: Institute for Supply Management

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