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Market Report: 4 December 2017

We had PMI manufacturing data releases for all the major economic regions last week with a generally positive tone to the data reflecting a sweet spot for manufacturing as the global economy picks up speed. Even the Brexit effected UK economy benefitted from this global pickup as Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 58.2, well ahead of expectations and the previous month.

However, an element of volatility returned to the market late on Friday afternoon as Donald Trump’s former National Security Advisor pleading guilty to lying in relation to the Russia investigation once again bringing forward the prospect impeachment proceedings against president.
The new week begins with strong gains on the equity market as news break that the UK and EU are on a verge of an agreements on the divorce bill and citizens’ rights, although there seems to be no breakthrough on the Northern Irish border talks. However, if successful, Brexit negotiations can move on to the next stage.

This week is the turn for the publication of PMI services data across major economic regions all of which are expected to growth. In the UK we also get the official Industrial and Manufacturing production data, both of which a little more backward looking (October) and could show some weakness compared to the September numbers but good year on year growth.

At the end of the week is the all-important US jobs data publication, job creation is expected to have remained strong with roughly 190,000 being created in November while the unemployment rate should stick to a lowly 4.1%.

Author: Helal Miah, Investment Research Analyst

The Week Ahead

Important economic releases & events this week:

Date Country Event Period Consensus Prior
04-Dec-2017 UK CIPS Construction PMI SA NOV 51.0 50.8
04-Dec-2017 US Durable Orders SA M/M (Final) OCT -1.2% -1.2%
04-Dec-2017 US Factory Orders SA M/M OCT -0.40% 1.4%
05-Dec-2017 JP PMI Services NOV   53.4
05-Dec-2017 CN Caixin Services PMI NOV   51.2
05-Dec-2017 EUZ Markit PMI Composite SA (Final) NOV 57.5 57.5
05-Dec-2017 EUZ Markit PMI Services SA (Final) NOV 56.2 56.2
05-Dec-2017 UK CIPS Services PMI SA NOV 55.0 55.6
05-Dec-2017 EUZ Retail Sales SCA M/M OCT -0.60% 0.70%
05-Dec-2017 EUZ Retail Sales CA Y/Y OCT 1.8% 3.7%
05-Dec-2017 US Trade Balance SA OCT -$47.4B -$43.5B
05-Dec-2017 US Markit PMI Services SA (Final) NOV 54.9 54.7
05-Dec-2017 US ISM Non Manufacturing SA NOV 59.0 60.1
07-Dec-2017 UK Halifax House Price SA 3-M/Y NOV   4.5%
07-Dec-2017 EUZ GDP SA Y/Y (Final) Q3 2.5% 2.5%
07-Dec-2017 JP GDP SA Q/Q (Final) Q3 0.30% 0.30%
08-Dec-2017 CN Trade Balance NSA NOV $33.2B $38.2B
08-Dec-2017 UK Construction Output Y/Y OCT   1.1%
08-Dec-2017 UK Industrial Production SA M/M OCT 0.10% 0.70%
08-Dec-2017 UK Industrial Production SA Y/Y OCT 3.6% 2.5%
08-Dec-2017 UK Manufacturing Production SA M/M OCT 0.0% 0.70%
08-Dec-2017 UK Manufacturing Production SA Y/Y OCT 3.8% 2.7%
08-Dec-2017 UK Trade Balance Visible SA OCT -£11.5B -£11.3B
08-Dec-2017 US Nonfarm Payrolls SA NOV 190.0K 261.0K R
08-Dec-2017 US Unemployment Rate NOV 4.1% 4.1%

 

Companies reporting this week

Date Company Name Event Description
05-Dec-2017 iomart Group Plc Q2 2018 Earnings Release
06-Dec-2017 Carillion Plc Q4 2017 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update
07-Dec-2017 DS Smith Plc Q2 2018 Earnings Release
08-Dec-2017 Berkeley Group Holdings Plc Q2 2018 Earnings Release

 

Glossary

PMI: Purchasing Managers Index

CPI: Consumer Price Index

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

BOE: Bank of England

ECB: European Central Bank

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee

BOJ: Bank of Japan

ISM: Institute for Supply Management

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