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Market Report: 23 January 2017

Last week there were some very important UK, US and Chinese figures released that kept investors busy. On Tuesday the latest CPI numbers shown that UK inflation rose by 0.5% in December, which is higher than the analysts forecast of 0.3%. Year-on-year inflation rose 1.6%, the highest since 2014. Meanwhile, the UK Labour Market Report was published on Wednesday. The number of people in work declined and growth in wages slowed but not enough to have a significant impact on the unemployment rate, which remained at 4.8% in the November/December period. The last important UK release came in on Friday. The British Retail Sales fell sharply in December down to -1.9%, while the year-on-year result growth was 4.3%, weaker than the expected 7.3%.

The release of US CPI went in line with the economists’ expectations. Inflation rose 0.3% in December and 2.1% year-on-year mainly due to higher energy prices that moved up consumer inflation. There were reassuring numbers out of China showing GDP growth of 6.8%, industrial output growth of 6% and retail sales of 10.9% over 2016.

The week ahead investors will primarily focus on two economic announcements. Latest update on the UK economic growth will be given on Thursday. Analysts expect that the UK GDP rose 0.46% in the fourth quarter of 2016, slightly lower than 0.6% in Q3. The year-over-year forecast is set 1.9%, while the prior estimate was 2.2%. Following on Friday, the latest growth figures from the US will be released. Economists expect data to show a strong US economy, growing by 2.2% (annualised) in the final quarter and 2% over the year.

Author: Helal Miah, Investment Research Analyst

The Week Ahead

Important economic releases & events this week:

DateCountryEventPeriodConsensusPrior
TueEUZMarkit PMI Composite SA (Preliminary)JAN 54.5 54.4 
TueEUZMarkit PMI Manufacturing SA (Preliminary)JAN 54.7 54.9 
TueEUZMarkit PMI Services SA (Preliminary)JAN 53.9 53.7 
TueUSMarkit PMI Manufacturing SA (Preliminary)JAN 54.7 54.3 
WedUKCBI Industrial Trends Export Order NSA M/MJAN  -15.0 
WedUKCBI Industrial Trends Total Orders NSA M/MJAN  0.0 
ThuUKGDP SA Q/Q (Preliminary)Q4 0.46% 0.60% 
ThuUKGDP SA Y/Y (Preliminary)Q4 1.9% 2.2% 
ThuUSMarkit PMI Services SA (Preliminary)JAN 53.5 53.9 
ThuJPCPI Core Y/YDEC -0.20% 0.10% 
FriUSGDP Chain Price SAAR Q/Q (First Preliminary)Q4 2.1% 1.4% 
FriUSGDP Chain Price SA Y/Y (First Preliminary)Q4 1.5% 1.3% 
FriUSGDP SAAR Q/Q (First Preliminary)Q4 2.2% 3.5% 
FriUSGDP SA Y/Y (First Preliminary)Q4 2.0% 1.7% 

Companies reporting this week: 

DateTickerCompany NameEvent TypeEvent Description
TueDC-GBDixons Carphone PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ3 2017 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update
TueEZJ-GBeasyJet PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ1 2017 Earnings Release
TueEZJ-GBeasyJet PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ1 2017 Sales and Revenue Release
WedANTO-GBAntofagasta PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Production Report
WedBLT-GBBHP Billiton PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Review
WedFRES-GBFresnillo PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Production Report
WedRTN-GBRestaurant Group PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update
ThuAAL-GBAnglo American PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Production Report
ThuDGE-GBDiageo PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ2 2017 Earnings Release
ThuIII-GB3i Group PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ3 2017 Earnings Release
ThuPOLY-GBPolymetal International PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Production Results
ThuRPC-GBRPC Group PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ3 2017 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
ThuSGE-GBThe Sage Group PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ1 2017 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Statement
ThuSTJ-GBSt. James's Place PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Sales and Revenue Release
ThuWTB-GBWhitbread PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ3 2017 Earnings Release
ThuWTB-GBWhitbread PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ3 2017 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update
ThuSKY-GBSky PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ2 2017 Earnings Release
ThuULVR-GBUnilever PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ4 2016 Earnings Release
FriBT.A-GBBT Group PlcConfirmed ReleasesQ3 2017 Earnings Release

Author: Helal Miah, Investment Research Analyst

Glossary

PMI: Purchasing Managers Index

CPI: Consumer Price Index

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

BOE: Bank of England

ECB: European Central Bank

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee

BOJ: Bank of Japan

ISM: Institute for Supply Management

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