The forward look, w/c 21 January 2013
Category: Investments, Reports, Shares
Sheridan Admans, investment research manager at The Share Centre, gives his thoughts on what to expect from companies announcing results w/c 21 January 2013.
Pearson (trading update)
Pearson gets the majority of its revenue in the second half of the year so this Q4 trading update will be of greater interest to investors. New Year comments on the all-important US education market will be worth noting. Other areas of interest will be Pearson’s growth in emerging markets and online sales.
We currently list Pearson as a HOLD
Afren (trading update)
As well as production figures, investors will be keen to hear an update on well drillings and the company’s position in regards to the standoff between the Kurdish regional authorities and Baghdad over the royalty and export dispute.
We currently list Afren as a BUY
SABMiller (Q3 trading statement)
Investors will be looking for any signs of growth from SABMiller’s emerging market operations. Growth in China will be of particular interest due to the slowing of its economic growth last year, volumes in the region now account for 24% of SABMiller’s sales.
Investors will also be keen to see if its strategy to selectively reduce prices in its European operation is continuing to support volume growth.
We currently list SABMiller as a HOLD
Companies also reporting today include Fresnillo (Q4 results) – HOLD
Investors will be expecting to see continued good levels of growth out of its emerging market operations, which have been helped by local product lines.
We suspect growth in its European operations to remain soft as recession continues to bite in parts. Growth in the US is likely to be impacted by tougher competition.
We currently list Unilever as a BUY
BHP Billiton (Q2 results)
We have seen other large miners report positive reports in early 2013 and so investors will keenly follow this report. It may provide further evidence of the improving health of the Chinese and global economy. Investors will also look out for the group’s statements regarding large capital expenditure programs.
We currently list BHP Billiton as a BUY
Companies also reporting today include Land Securities (interim management statement), Sage Group (interim management statement) – HOLD
Companies reporting today include Anglo American (Q4 results) – HOLD
23 January Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 9 and 10 January – Bank of England
Last month, just one member of the Bank of England’s MPC – David Miles – voted for additional quantitative easing. The committee did, however, raise concerns about the value of sterling, suggesting that the appreciation of the pound in 2011 and 2012 had a negative impact on UK exports. Since then, sterling has dropped back slightly against the euro. Will today’s minutes reveal additional support for QE, and did the MPC repeat its concerns about the strength of the pound?
23 January Labour Market Statistics, January 2013 – ONS
The recent trend of rising employment and falling unemployed continued in the three months to November. The employment level was 71.2%, or 29.60 million, while unemployment was 7.8%, or 2.51 million. Equally as significant, average wages rose 1.8 per cent, while inflation according to the RPI index was 3.2%. Will unemployment continue to fall, and also will the gap between inflation and increases in average wages close?
25 January Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Estimate, Q4 2012 – ONS
It is highly likely that today’s data from the ONS will reveal a contraction in UK GDP in Q4. A more relevant question relates to the extent of the contraction. The most recent PMI indices from Markit/CIPS are consistent with a Q4 contraction of 0.4%.
Other economic announcements include:
- Financial Services Survey – CBI/PWC
- Trends in Lending , January 2013 – Bank of England
- Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey – CBI
- Public Sector Finances, December 2012 – ONS
- Monthly Distributive Trades Survey – CBI
- GDP and the Labour Market, 2012 Q4, January GDP Update – ONS
- Index of Services , November 2012 – ONS
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